Dear Colleague,
Talks in Doha last weekend ended without a breakthrough, though Qatar continues to mediate between Iran and the United States. On Monday, the U.S. carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, according to U.S. officials. As prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim, our work this past week has focused on how economies respond to sustained pressure while efforts to end the conflict continue.
In Iran, we’ve been looking at how the economy is holding up and why some entrepreneurs remain optimistic about AI and technology even as war and sanctions make it harder to do business.
Our work on Cuba asks a related question about how U.S. sanctions can shape a country’s economic future. Washington is restricting Cuba’s access to oil from abroad while allowing U.S. suppliers to sell fuel to Cuban private businesses. If businesses and individuals with money and connections are better placed to secure fuel, who stands to benefit from Cuba’s economic recovery?
Please click the headings below to access the related articles.
Best regards,
Layla Saghafian
Engagement Coordinator
AI could help Iranian industries reduce costs, improve productivity, and make better use of scarce resources amid war and sanctions.
In a new article for our Vision Iran Initiative, Hossein Hamdieh examines the growing interest in AI among Iranian entrepreneurs despite the economic pressures of war and sanctions. As war, sanctions, and political upheaval have repeatedly disrupted Iran’s technological development, Hamdieh explores how AI could help entrepreneurs build businesses with less initial capital while helping industries improve productivity and reduce waste. The AI Innovation Factory of Iran (AIIF) seeks to support this process by bringing together entrepreneurs from across the country to develop solutions to specific industrial problems. These efforts reflect Iranian tech experts’ and entrepreneurs’ optimism and determination to build for the future amid uncertainty. While innovation cannot replace diplomacy, it could help preserve the technological skills needed for Iran’s economic recovery and future growth.
The Trump administration’s oil blockade is worsening Cuba’s energy crisis, while fuel sales to Cuban private businesses provide uneven relief and give U.S. suppliers more influence over the island’s economic recovery.
In an article for The Sanctions Age published in collaboration with the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA), Lydia Mackey, Policy and Communications Program Assistant at CEDA, and Josefine Petrick, our policy fellow with the Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief, call on Washington to end the de facto blockade on oil shipments to ease the humanitarian crisis. While restricting Cuba’s access to oil from other countries, the Trump administration has allowed American companies to sell fuel to Cuban private businesses, with Cuba receiving about $232 million in U.S. fuel between January and August 2026. The authors also call for a more “open and accountable economy,” urging the U.S. to consult Cuban civil society, independent entrepreneurs, and diaspora communities so economic decisions reflect a wider range of Cuban views and interests.
Iran’s economic contraction has eased since June, and resilience in parts of the economy has helped its government withstand continued U.S. pressure.
In our latest Critical Question, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Ezana Tedla examine how much Iran’s economy has contracted since February and how output has changed since June. They combine GDP figures with data on individual sectors and firms, comparing Iran’s experience with that of other economies that have faced war or severe restrictions.
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