By Ezana Tedla

Iran's capacity to sustain its industrial production is a key area of leverage in the confrontation with the United States. In August, Washington announced Operation Economic Outcast to put additional pressure on the Iranian economy. While this affects outside flows, it does not impact the inventories already within the country.

We analyze how resilient different Iranian sectors are to a prolonged disruption of imports. To do this, we examine days of inventory in the quarterly filings of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, and compare sectors most exposed to sanctions with those that are not.

Critical Questions is Bourse & Bazaar Advisory’s series of concise research notes. Published every two weeks, these notes provide policymakers, executives, and investors the answers they need to understand evolving opportunities and risks in West and Central Asia. Each leverages the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s staff expertise, stakeholder relationships, and proprietary data to present qualitative and quantitative insights.

If you would like to receive these research notes, please contact Darius Barik to discuss your subscription:

darius [at] bourseandbazaar.org

By Darius Barik

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is the world’s second largest oil company by managed reserves. Joint-ventures with NIOC and its subsidiaries represent the most important potential investment deals in any future opening of the Iranian economy. However, NIOC’s formal structure does not reflect the full range of stakeholders with influence over key decisions.

We examine how authority over NIOC is distributed across the wider Iranian state, and how sanctions have changed the marketing of its oil. We do so by looking at NIOC’s formal chain of command, the political bodies that share power over it, and the network of intermediaries on which it now relies to deliver oil to its customers abroad.

Critical Questions is Bourse & Bazaar Advisory’s series of concise research notes. Published every two weeks, these notes provide policymakers, executives, and investors the answers they need to understand evolving opportunities and risks in West and Central Asia. Each leverages the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s staff expertise, stakeholder relationships, and proprietary data to present qualitative and quantitative insights.

If you would like to receive these research notes, please contact Darius Barik to discuss your subscription:

darius [at] bourseandbazaar.org

By Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Ezana Tedla

Policymakers and multinational executives are concerned that Iran could target subsea cables in a new round of escalation in the U.S.-Iran War. Iran has previously targeted data centers, but the undersea infrastructure so central to the region’s economy has not yet faced attacks.

In this note, we examine why this hasn’t happened and the circumstances in which it would be likely to change. To do so, we look at Iran’s offensive doctrine, its strategic objectives, and the extent of redundancy built into Gulf cable routes.

Critical Questions is Bourse & Bazaar Advisory’s series of concise research notes. Published every two weeks, these notes provide policymakers, executives, and investors the answers they need to understand evolving opportunities and risks in West and Central Asia. Each leverages the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s staff expertise, stakeholder relationships, and proprietary data to present qualitative and quantitative insights.

If you would like to receive these research notes, please contact Darius Barik to discuss your subscription:

darius [at] bourseandbazaar.org