Dear Colleague,

As global energy disruptions from the war in Iran have spurred renewed interest in alternatives to fossil fuels, rooftop solar is high on the agenda at the United Nations COP31 climate talks in Antalya this week.

Against this backdrop, our most recent publications examine what Iran needs to expand solar power, who gets reliable electricity…

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By Arya Kia

Iran would appear, at first glance, an unlikely place to discuss energy deprivation. It possesses some of the world’s largest oil and natural-gas reserves and has spent decades expanding electricity and gas infrastructure across the country.

That expansion is a genuine development achievement. According to the World Bank’s electricity-access d…

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By Matthew MacGeoch

“We have concluded contracts for around 80 gigawatts of solar,” said Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, in December 2025 when asked about his proudest achievement in his first year in office. The figure demands a moment’s attention. Iran’s entire electricity system has about 101 GW of nominal generating capacity. In 2026, the UK has …

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Dear Colleague,

Talks in Doha last weekend ended without a breakthrough, though Qatar continues to mediate between Iran and the United States. On Monday, the U.S. carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, according to U.S. officials. As prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim, our work this past week has focused on how economies respond to sustained pressure while efforts to end the conflict continue.

In Iran, we’ve been looking at how the economy is holding up and why some entrepreneurs remain optimistic about AI and technology even as war and sanctions make it harder to do business.

Our work on Cuba asks a related question about how U.S. sanctions can shape a country’s economic future. Washington is restricting Cuba’s access to oil from abroad while allowing U.S. suppliers to sell fuel to Cuban private businesses. If businesses and individuals with money and connections are better placed to secure fuel, who stands to benefit from Cuba’s economic recovery?

Please click the headings below to access the related articles.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

AI could help Iranian industries reduce costs, improve productivity, and make better use of scarce resources amid war and sanctions.
In a new article for our Vision Iran Initiative, Hossein Hamdieh examines the growing interest in AI among Iranian entrepreneurs despite the economic pressures of war and sanctions. As war, sanctions, and political upheaval have repeatedly disrupted Iran’s technological development, Hamdieh explores how AI could help entrepreneurs build businesses with less initial capital while helping industries improve productivity and reduce waste. The AI Innovation Factory of Iran (AIIF) seeks to support this process by bringing together entrepreneurs from across the country to develop solutions to specific industrial problems. These efforts reflect Iranian tech experts’ and entrepreneurs’ optimism and determination to build for the future amid uncertainty. While innovation cannot replace diplomacy, it could help preserve the technological skills needed for Iran’s economic recovery and future growth.

The Trump administration’s oil blockade is worsening Cuba’s energy crisis, while fuel sales to Cuban private businesses provide uneven relief and give U.S. suppliers more influence over the island’s economic recovery.
In an article for The Sanctions Age published in collaboration with the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA), Lydia Mackey, Policy and Communications Program Assistant at CEDA, and Josefine Petrick, our policy fellow with the Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief, call on Washington to end the de facto blockade on oil shipments to ease the humanitarian crisis. While restricting Cuba’s access to oil from other countries, the Trump administration has allowed American companies to sell fuel to Cuban private businesses, with Cuba receiving about $232 million in U.S. fuel between January and August 2026. The authors also call for a more “open and accountable economy,” urging the U.S. to consult Cuban civil society, independent entrepreneurs, and diaspora communities so economic decisions reflect a wider range of Cuban views and interests.

Iran’s economic contraction has eased since June, and resilience in parts of the economy has helped its government withstand continued U.S. pressure.
In our latest Critical Question, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Ezana Tedla examine how much Iran’s economy has contracted since February and how output has changed since June. They combine GDP figures with data on individual sectors and firms, comparing Iran’s experience with that of other economies that have faced war or severe restrictions.

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Key Takeaways

• Iran’s economy shrank by 10.1% year on year in Q1 1405 (March-June 2026), its worst quarter since the war began. Excluding oil, output fell by 4.6%. The IMF projects a 7.6% contraction for the 2026 calendar year. The quarterly figures are preliminary and the IMF figure is a projection. Both may be revised as fuller data arrive.

• The oil and g…

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By Hossein Hamdieh

The Trump administration’s war against Iran may well be intended to lead the country down the path to dilapidation and economic ruin. Now that Washington’s project of toppling Iran’s political system has proven far messier than anticipated, it looks as though the country is being dragged into a war of attrition, with military attacks p…

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Dear Colleague,

This week, our work returns to a question at the heart of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s research: what does economic coercion really achieve and who is actually affected?

The below articles reflect our multidisciplinary approach to answering this essential question. The writing spans economic assessments, legal analysis, historical research, and even cultural criticism.

By looking at similar issues from different vantage points, we aim to address long-running misconceptions about how sanctions “work” and the influence they have on targeted countries and institutions. For example, economic resilience should not be mistaken for an absence of harms, nor economic hardship for evidence that a policy is achieving its aims.

Please click the headings below to access the related articles.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Iran’s celebrated brick architecture reflects both extraordinary creativity and the constraints imposed by sanctions and economic isolation.

In a new essay for The Baffler, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj explores the history of brickwork in Iran, examining how its contemporary revival reflects the country’s creativity and resilience. This resilience, however, should not overshadow the constraints facing Iranian architects and engineers. Esfandyar traces how the embrace of concrete and steel during the Pahlavi era diminished the prestige of traditional bricklaying. For decades, Iran’s most skilled bricklayers worked primarily on restoring historic sites. Today, a combination of sanctions and protectionist policies have restricted access to modern construction materials and technologies, making brick one of the few available avenues for architectural innovation. Although brick has regained prestige in contemporary architecture, attracting international attention online, the workers skilled in this craft have yet to see comparable improvements in their social standing or economic circumstances.

The depletion of Iran’s oil stocks at sea is deepening economic pressure, but it may not push Tehran to concede to U.S. demands.

In an interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung last week, Darius Barik explained that the depletion of Iran’s oil stocks at sea would remove its last major source of urgently needed foreign currency, but that this would not necessarily force Tehran to concede to U.S. demands. Years of sanctions, he noted, have accustomed Iran’s economy to sustained pressure and strengthened its ability to absorb economic shocks. Barik also considered an economically driven popular uprising unlikely, with many Iranians focused on getting by rather than joining mass protests. His assessment challenges the assumption that greater economic hardship will translate into political concessions.

New U.S. sanctions threaten operations of the International Criminal Court, with consequences for the nonprofits and human rights defenders supporting its work.

In a new explainer for The Sanctions Age, Poorvika Mehra of the Charity & Security Network examines how expanded U.S. sanctions against the ICC threaten the financial infrastructure and international cooperation that sustain its work. Even where general licenses permit transactions, banks and service providers may withdraw rather than navigate compliance risks, disrupting essential operations. These pressures also extend to nonprofits and human rights defenders, as legal uncertainty can discourage otherwise lawful cooperation. To protect the ICC, Mehra calls for practical measures to keep banking and payment services available to the Court and its civil society partners, alongside diplomatic opposition to the sanctions.

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Dear Colleague,

This past week, our work has focused on two very different instances in which policymakers are struggling to revise and modernize their policies in response to new pressures.

In the Gulf, as the Houthi offensive continues and as the Iran war rekindles, longstanding bilateral defense partnerships are faltering and efforts to establish new collective security arrangements have so far failed to prevent further escalation.

In the domain of sanctions policy, efforts to modernize U.S. sanctions have lagged their increased use, and concurrent policy moves, such as cuts to foreign aid, have compounded unintended effects, such as humanitarian consequences.

What these disparate cases show is that all policies have their own inertia. Changing course can be incredibly difficult, even when there is an obvious reason why a new approach might be needed. We are interested in understanding how this inertia can be overcome, enabling the implementation of better policy, whatever the context.

Please click the headings below to access the related articles.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Saudi Arabia’s expanding defense partnerships have not deterred Houthi attacks, raising questions about how the Kingdom can achieve lasting security.

In a new article commissioned by the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, professor of international politics Khalid Al-Jufairi argues that renewed Houthi attacks have exposed the limits of Saudi Arabia’s expanding defense partnerships, particularly the reliance on American deterrence. While the recent Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan exemplifies a commitment to collective defense, the triggers for military intervention remain unclear. Al-Jufairi emphasizes that lasting security requires a negotiated framework addressing the Houthis’ military capabilities and leverage around Bab al-Mandab. The central challenge for Riyadh is the task of leveraging its security partnerships to support a negotiated settlement that mitigates the need for further escalation.

Gulf states have responded to the Iran war by seeking bilateral security arrangements. But this approach is failing.

In an article for Rutba, Bourse & Bazaar Foundation Senior Fellow Khalifa Al Suwaidi argues that the Iran war has exposed the limits of Gulf states’ reliance on bilateral arrangements with Washington and Tehran to shield them from regional conflict. He calls for closer cooperation among the six GCC states and Jordan through targeted intelligence sharing, coordinated use of their economic influence, and a common position on any regional settlement. He also argues that Washington has treated the Gulf’s exposure to attacks as a bargaining chip. Gulf states, he emphasizes, must have a direct voice in negotiations shaping their security, beyond their roles as mediators, hosts, or sources of financing.

Drawing on experiences in Syria and Venezuela, the Trump administration is taking limited steps to “modernize” its sanctions policies.

In a new explainer for The Sanctions Age, former Treasury Department official Alex Zerden argues that the Trump administration’s sanctions modernization efforts have made some progress but remain limited and lack a clear overall strategy. He contrasts the broad removal of sanctions on Syria with more limited relief in Venezuela, showing how these decisions remain tied to the administration’s foreign policy priorities in each country. He calls for more staff and resources dedicated to delisting, alongside safeguards to prevent political influence and corruption in the sanctions relief process. Zerden also emphasizes the need for the Treasury Department to clearly explain its modernization strategy to businesses, civil society groups, and foreign governments.

Cuts to aid are compounding the effects of sanctions and weakening protections for civilians.

In an article for the Journal of International Humanitarian Action, Sara Moussavi, a member of the Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief, argues that withdrawing aid can act as an additional form of economic pressure on sanctioned countries. Drawing on Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, she examines how unclear regulations, banks’ reluctance to process permitted transactions, and reductions in assistance restrict humanitarian operations. She calls for clearer, more consistent humanitarian exemptions and practical support to ensure aid can reach those who need it, warning that “sanctions and aid cuts risk becoming mutually reinforcing attacks on civilian survival.”

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By Khalid Al-Jufairi

The Saudi-Houthi confrontation since mid-September 2026 has revealed a widening gap between what formal security guarantees Saudi Arabia has established and what sort of American deterrence and military power it can rely on. The repeated Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport and Saudi energy infrastructure are …

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Dear Colleague,

After a week of news reports describing a rebound in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has stepped-up attacks against oil tankers. Shipping costs remain elevated and physical barrels of crude oil are trading as high as $150. Meanwhile, U.S. economic pressure on Iran continues to mount, as sanctions and the blockade disrupt critical supply chains.

Still, American and Iranian negotiators remain far apart. This past week, our team looked beyond the headlines and examined how the oil price influences U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions, how Iran is adapting to economic pressure, and how these pressures are impacting ordinary Iranians trying to afford food and medicine.

Please click the headings below to access the related articles.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Economic pressure is damaging Iran’s economy and harming ordinary people, yet there is no political breakthrough in sight.

In an article published last week, The Economist examined the state of the Iranian economy, focusing on collapsing oil exports, rising inflation, and disrupted trade. While the situation is dire, Iranian leaders remain unwilling to capitulate to U.S. demands. In detailing the extent of economic hardship, the article cites Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick’s analysis Iranian dependence on air freight to maintain medical imports. They estimate that roughly 60% of medical imports to Iran arrive by air. The aviation sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration threaten Iran’s medical supply chains, limiting access to safe pharmaceuticals that many patients depend on.

More oil is moving through Hormuz, but uncertainty and pressure on oil markets persist.

Speaking to Responsible Statecraft, the Quincy Institute’s online publication, analyst Ezana Tedla explained why the recent increase in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has failed to restore calm to oil markets. With the ongoing war, ships remain at risk, and a recent spate of attacks demonstrates the continued threat Iran poses to commercial vessels. The risk premium associated with moving oil through the strait, reaching $35 per barrel, is unlikely to dissipate until a durable ceasefire can be reached, a low probability scenario.

The U.S. blockade is making basic goods less affordable in Iran.

Speaking with Al Jazeera, Maryam Ashrafi explained how the U.S. naval blockade is interrupting imports of grain and other soft commodities. While some shipments are being redirected through Iran’s northern Caspian ports, the smaller vessels servicing Iran’s northern ports cannot carry the same volumes as those servicing ports in the South. Maryam also described how rising food prices are pushing consumers to buy cheaper, lower-quality goods, and how shortages of raw materials used in products such as margarine are contributing to further price increases.

Rebounding oil shipments do not eliminate the risk of further escalation.

Aside from the risk to commercial vessels, Fortune cited Esfandyar’s assessment that Iran retains the capacity to do more harm than attacking ships making “unauthorized” transits—Iran can still damage regional oil infrastructure, including drilling and refineries. His assessment highlights why CENTCOM’s recent operational success in moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the crisis has abated. If the current economic pressure persists and the U.S. continues to reject diplomatic opportunities, Iran has both the means and motivate to escalate.

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Dear Colleague,

While economic pressure is straining Iran’s economy, the effects are starkly different for ordinary citizens, business leaders, and political elites. We have been working to understand and explain these varied outcomes through our research and media engagements.

Our recent analysis includes two new articles published on our own platform and insights shared with the New York Times and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

Please click the headings below to access the related articles.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Wartime inflation is creating new pressures for Iran’s BNPL providers.

As our analyst Ezana Tedla explains in this new piece, “By Now, Pay Later” programs in Iran are expanding rapidly as households use interest-free credit to manage rising prices and buy goods now before costs increase further. Ezana argues that inflation and wartime disruptions are making this model harder to sustain, as providers seek to recover costs from merchants and borrowers. Adoption of BNPL may offer short-term relief, but it is contributing to debt pressures and potentially reinforcing inflation.

High inventory levels have helped Iranian industries sustain production in the face of wartime disruptions.

In the third edition of our “Critical Questions” series of research notes, Ezana examines how various Iranian industries may be able to maintain production using inventories already within the country. Drawing on quarterly filings from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, he compares sectors with different levels of exposure to sanctions. The analysis explores how these stocks could reduce the effects of extended disruptions to imports and show which industries may struggle as their supplies run out.

U.S. economic pressure is unlikely to force Iran into major concessions.

In a feature interview for Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj spoke with journalist Rewert Hoffer about the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. Esfandyar explains that despite losing oil revenues, Iran’s government can continue paying domestic expenses in rials by cutting spending and monetizing the remaining fiscal deficit. This in turn leads to further inflation and reduces households’ purchasing power and demand for imports, helping the state withstand external pressure at the expense of living standards and long-term economic development. Esfandyar also argues that the fear of government violence discourages ordinary Iranians from launching renewed protests, limiting the likelihood that economic hardship will destabilize the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s is proving able to evade aviation sanctions, but keeping aging aircraft in service puts passengers at risk.

Speaking with Damien Cave of the New York Times, Josefine Petrick describes Iranian efforts to evade aviation sanctions, procure parts, and keep aircraft airborne as “puzzle piecing a plane together.” She argues that sanctioning countries must account for the indirect effects of their policies, including the dangers associated with aircraft operating far longer than they would elsewhere. The continued flights of Mahan Air, Iran’s largest private airline, to Southeast Asia exemplify both the limits of U.S. efforts to economically isolate Iran and the impact of sanctions on passenger safety.

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By Ezana Tedla

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) companies have experienced rapid growth. Around the world, consumers are scaling-up their purchases by tapping this new form of credit, which is typically provided with less oversight than traditional credit cards. The customer pays installments to the BNPL provider who takes a commiss…

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Key Takeaways

• The U.S.’s Operation Economic Outcast, unveiled in August 2026, targets Iran’s remaining trade and financial connections abroad. But Iranian industries have spent eight years building up stockpiles of raw materials and parts. In the near term, it can keep running on that stock without new imports.

• Iranian manufacturers are responding to high…

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Dear Colleague,

This week, the team behind the Rihla Initiative for Green Economic Growth was in Abu Dhabi for the inaugural Rihla Summit.

Mehran Haghirian, Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Vuyiswa Hlongwane, Nguyen Dang Dao, Imad Ahmed, Mohamed El Dahshan, and yours truly, helping bring the program to life, supported by Khuzama Wardeh from afar.

The landmark summit brought together over 150 participants, including Rihla Council Members, experts, practitioners, and investors from 6 regions and 60 countries to exchange perspectives and develop a policy agenda and implementation approaches for Gulf green investment.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Events

The Rihla Summit was held in partnership with the prestigious Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy and took place at the academy’s campus in Abu Dhabi.

Here are several highlights from the inaugural Rihla Summit:

• Moving from policy to implementation: The agenda included sessions exploring how Gulf climate finance can support green industrialization, economic diversification, resilient infrastructure, and quality employment.

• Launching new tools to support the ecosystem: The summit marked the launch of the initiative’s next phase which will spearhead the development of new tools including a stakeholder mapping database and a first-of-its-kind Gulf green investment tracker.

• Building cooperation beyond the summit: The discussions identified opportunities for new partnerships and long-term collaboration among participating organizations from the Gulf and Global South.

• Executive education in climate finance: Participants will continue the program through a dedicated Executive Training Day on 30 September organized in partnership with Global Climate Finance Centre.

The summit represented an important milestone for the Rihla Initiative and the culmination of two years of work by the team. We look forward to building on these discussions as the initiative enters its next phase.

External Publications

Ozempic in Iran

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj - London Review of Books - 29 September

Media Engagements

This week, the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation expertise was featured across English, Arabic, Italian, and German-language media, reflecting the growing international reach of our work.

Senior Fellow Khalifa Al-Suwaidi was interviewed for the Al-Raqib Podcast about how the war has reshaped Gulf stability. The interview has already generated over 500,000 views on YouTube.

An article by Esfandyar and Policy Fellow Josefine Petrick on the effects of Trump’s new aviation sanctions on Iran’s medical supply chains was referenced extensively by the Financial Times and Italy’s HuffPost. Esfandyar’s analysis was also featured by the Italian news agency AGI and Germany’s Tagesspiegel.

Mehran was interviewed for an article in Arab News on Iran’s growing economic pressure and whether the U.S. naval blockade is leading Tehran to seek renewed diplomacy.

Finally, Analyst Ezana Tedla was interviewed for an Al Jazeera article about the risks Iran faces as it redirects trade from its blockaded southern ports toward the Caspian Sea.

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Dear Colleague,

This week we have published an important article by our CEO Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Policy Fellow Josefine Petrick analyzing how Trump’s new sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector threaten to disrupt the country’s medical supply chains.

With more than 60% of Iran’s pharmaceutical imports arriving in the country by air, passenger flights operated by Iranian airlines have become increasingly important for delivering medical products. Esfandyar and Josefine argue that the Trump administrations’ aviation sanctions threaten these air-freight dependent imports and may leave many Iranians without reliable or affordable access to key medicines.

We have also published the second article in our series on Iran’s electricity sector. In his latest entry, energy systems expert Arya Kia looks at the consequences of perennial electricity underpricing in Iran. While cheap energy costs can protect household purchasing power and lower production costs in the short term, a pricing system which discourages efficient consumption has ultimately contributed to the deterioration of electricity reliability in Iran.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Our Publications

How Underpricing Deepens Iran’s Electricity Crisis

By Arya Kia - 22 September

Trump’s New Aviation Sanctions Threaten Iran’s Medical Supply Chains

By Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick - 17 September

Announcements

Inaugural Rihla Summit to Convene in Abu Dhabi

The inaugural Rihla Summit will take place in just one week, on 29 September 2026, at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi. The Summit is part of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation’s flagship project, the Rihla Initiative for Green Economic Growth.

It will convene Rihla Council Members from six regions across the Global South to identify common priorities, examine investment barriers, and determine how to turn regional dialogue into mutually beneficial partnerships.

Follow the Rihla LinkedIn Page for updates and insights from the Summit.

Media Engagements

Amwaj Media highlighted Esfandyar and Josefine’s analysis on the threat to Iranian medical supply chains in their report on the Trump administration’s push to “shut down” Iranian airlines.

Esfandyar was quoted in a report by Susannah George of The Washington Post on how Iran’s leadership is enduring the impacts of Trump’s economic pressure campaign.

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By Arya Kia

Iran’s electricity shortage is often presented as a problem of insufficient generation: demand rises faster than the amount of electricity the system can reliably supply, so the apparent solution is to build more power plants. However, as explained in the first article of this series, Iran’s frequent blackouts are owed to a paradox, whereby t…

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By Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick

On September 8, 2026, the Trump administration issued new sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation industry. In its announcement of the new sanctions, the Treasury Department claimed the action would target Iran’s commercial airlines which have “long supported the Iranian regime’s destabilizing activities, with …

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Dear Colleague,

This week we are pleased to share a new article in The Sanctions Age, our platform for analysis of global sanctions issues.

Rachel Ziemba, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), has written an “explainer” on the controversial U.S.-Venezuela oil deal. While the deal could bring benefits such as energy-sector investments and jobs for Venezuelan workers, Ziemba explains that sanctions allow the U.S. to retain leverage over the country’s economy. She also cautions that provisions of the agreement remain unclear, highlighting that there are no guarantees that the revenues will benefit ordinary Venezuelans.

We have also published a new article by our Executive Director of Research and Programs, Mehran Haghirian, who recently attended convenings in Abu Dhabi and Salalah. Mehran proposes a complementary track of regional diplomacy to run alongside the U.S-Iran talks, enabling the eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf to establish “shared principles and pooled interests” that can underpin new regional security arrangements.

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian

Engagement Coordinator

Our Publications

Explainer: The U.S. Government’s Oil Deal with Venezuela

By Rachel Ziemba - 14 September

The Gulf Region Needs Its Own MOU

By Mehran Haghirian - 11 September

Events

Policy Fellow Josefine Petrick spoke in a Middle East Council webinar on the Iran crisis, which discussed whether renewed U.S. sanctions can achieve what months of military force have not.

Mehran Haghirian, participated in a panel discussion in Salalah, Oman titled “What Shapes GCC - China Cooperation on Green Industries and Finance?” The discussion was co-organized by The Rihla Initiative for Green Economic Growth and the Shaheen Institute for Strategy and Development.

Media Engagements

In the past week, Mehran Haghirian was quoted in AFP on the resilience of economic ties between Iran and the UAE. The report was syndicated in France 24. It was also published in Persian by the Iranian state news agency, IRNA. He was also quoted in The National on Iran’s ability to wage an economic war against the U.S.

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By Mehran Haghirian

Diplomatic activity around the war on Iran intensified in late August after a period of stagnation, with Pakistani, Qatari, and Omani officials traveling to Tehran. But the U.S. attack on military installations on Larak Island on August 30 was followed by a wider resumption of fighting. The United States and Iran have since carried ou…

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Dear Colleague,

This week we are pleased to share a new Foreign Affairs essay by our CEO, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, analyzing Iran’s ability to withstand the coercive effects of the Trump administration’s “economic onslaught.” While Iran’s leaders have recognized the detrimental effects of sanctions on the country’s economy, they continue to shift economic pressure onto ordinary people in a process of “financial repression.” Willing to sacrifice general economic welfare, Iranian authorities believe a slowing economy will help them persevere during the war with the U.S.

We have also published a new piece by energy expert Arya Kia, the first in a series of articles he has written examining the state of electricity generation in Iran. In this first entry, Arya unpacks Iran’s persistent shortfalls in generation capacity and examines a “paradox” whereby theoretical capacity is constrained by fuel constraints, maintenance requirements, aging equipment, water availability, transmission bottlenecks, and extreme temperatures.

Finally, a last reminder about our new account on X, where we post daily coverage of our experts’ media appearances and publications — follow us at @BourseBazaarFdn!

Best regards,

Layla Saghafian, Engagement Coordinator

External Publications

Why America Can’t Strangle Iran

By Esfandyar Batmanghelidj - Foreign Affairs - 8 September

Our Publications

Behind Iran’s Persistent Electricity Shortages Lies a Capacity Paradox

By Arya Kia - 8 September

Events

Executive Director of Research and Programs Mehran Haghirian spoke in a “Middle East Energy” roundtable focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The event was part of a long-running series hosted by the Baker Institute at Rice University, bringing scholars together with members of the energy industry and diplomatic community.

Mehran also participated in an EMANES webinar panel analyzing the economic consequences of the Iran war across the MENA region and Africa.

Media Engagements

In the past week, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj was quoted in the Wall Street Journal on how some leaders in Tehran view the growing economic pressure the country is facing.

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